Grid failure unlikely, but make plans just in case

Kurt Solomon recently attended the Norton Rose Grid Failure seminar representing Ami Underwriting Managers. At the conference he gathered some insights regarding our power infrastructure and its current challenges. Here are his thoughts:

I thought, even as a layman South African who battles with load shedding, it was very interesting. There was information shared by the speakers that affect all South Africans.

These were my key takeaways:

• Power Generation:
  • In the past 5-15 years, our focus was primarily on hydro power.
  • The recent 4pm loadshedding schedule is because they are pumping water between dams, and they found that after 4pm when businesses close, they have enough power to pump water back up. So it creates the power cycle.
  • Presently, we have a diverse range of power plants, including nuclear, gas, coal, wind, hydro, and new PV (solar) additions.
  • The increase in power plant variety has led to complications and breakdowns, but it is necessary to meet the growing demand.

• Power Distribution:
  • Electricity flows from power stations to transformers and then to various regions and home via transformer lines.
  • The majority of electricity in SA is generated in Mpumalanga (also known as the power belt). The problem is when power is transported through powerlines etc. to further regions, power generation depletes.

• System Operator (SO):
  • The SO controls load shedding and monitors the frequency and voltage levels on the Integrated Power System (IPS).
  • Frequency is a critical factor. Dropping below 47 or going above 52 Hertz can lead to a grid failure.
  • It takes 1-3 years to repair a damaged turbine.

• Grid Failure:
  • Grid failures have occurred in countries such as the USA, Argentina, Canada, and India (among others). So we are not alone.
  • In South Africa, Stage 13 (threshold at 13,000 MW) represents grid collapse. Currently, we are operating at Stage 4-6 (2,000-6,000 MW) with a reserve of 2,000 MW always to prevent total grid failure.

• Black start:
  • If the grid fails, every country has a black start station requirement, depending on the size of the grid to get turbines and generators up and running. Our size grid requires two turbines and generators. We have three. Auxiliary supplies and fuel stockpiles have been checked and that’s a good thing. This ensures a quick startup: five hours at best and three days at worst. 

• Risks:
  • Our ageing fleet of power plants is in need of replacement and maintenance.
  • The majority of power plants were built in the 70s, with a lifespan of 30-40 years. 2010 was essentially their lifespan expiry. Now they are trying to do maintenance to keep the old plants going.
  • There are reliability issues with new plants like Medupi and Kusile. Basically these plants were supposed to be like the Mercedes-Benz of power plants, but they didn’t run as we would have hoped.
  • Corruption and mismanagement haven’t helped.

• Remedies:
  • Adding capacity to the grid, which is currently under way.
  • There was a record number of renewables added in 2023, including BESS projects (Battery Energy Storage System) and solar and battery systems.
  • Expired export contracts  (like we have with neighbouring countries) from 2024 will provide an opportunity for new projects and extra power.
  • Government is putting incentives in place for small-scale generation (microgrids) up to 100 MW.
  • Exploration of power ships is being carried out as a potential solution.
  • The powers that be (pardon the pun) are also looking at optimising the use of coal by utilising the right grade of coal.

• Other Considerations:
  • Sasol’s largest green hydrogen project in Africa.
  • Nuclear energy has its drawbacks in terms of environmental sustainability, but may be beneficial for engineering purposes and stopping loadshedding. Like re-investing in Pelindaba in North West.
  • New smart meters are being installed in homes. These are helpful for ripple control, mitigating surges and high power that can damage substations and transformers.

• Legal and Insurance aspects:
  • Incorporate exclusions for grid failure, similar to the nuclear exclusions from the past.
  • Implement risk spreading, avoidance, and management strategies.

It is essential for us to assess our own capacity and risk appetite in dealing with potential national or metropolitan grid failures. But according to the CSIR and Adesh Singh  (a reputable engineer who has done research and who presented at the conference), a total grid failure is unlikely. We do however need to plan, in case it does happen.

What are your plans should we experience grid failure?